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Glenda Jackson |
Poll places Tories in line to edge out Glenda...
* Hampstead split in election survey * Labour back embattled MP * Conservatives: ‘We’re in the lead’ * Rivals in by-election test
LABOUR MP Glenda Jackson’s fight for survival took a turn for the worse after a major new poll of voting intentions suggested her place in Parliament is likely to be lost in a Tory landslide.
Research by pollsters PoliticsHome.com, claimed to amount to the biggest survey of its kind with 35,000 responses from voters living in marginal seats, put the Conservatives ahead in the race for the Hampstead and Kilburn seat, leading Ms Jackson by 2 per cent.
It is one of the starkest warnings yet that Ms Jackson, who has hardly been troubled in defence of her seat since being first elected in 1992, has a tough fight on her hands to cling on.
The poll is understood to place the Conservatives on 36 per cent of the vote in the constituency, Labour on 34 per cent and the Lib Dems, who have also made the area a prime target for the next general election, on 23 per cent.
One Labour insider said the new information should not be “read as an extra layer of terribleness – we already knew we had a battle on our hands and our job is to get out there and get to work”.
Nevertheless, if the next general election was being held this week, the PoliticsHome.com pollsters said, the constituency could be turned blue.
Their report said: “Our poll suggests that so far the Lib Dems have failed to position themselves as the main challengers to Labour and the drop in Labour support is instead going to the Conservatives, in some cases allowing them to win from third place.”
The survey was immediately dismissed by the Liberal Democrats who said that it was far less significant than today’s (Thursday’s) knife-edge Hampstead Town by-election, where they hope to gain another seat on the council at the expense of the Conservatives.
Labour had hoped to bounce back from losing control of the Town Hall, a series of council by-election defeats and the loss of London mayor Ken Livingstone with a good showing in today’s poll.
But some of the most pessimistic members fear the ballot may increase embarrassment if the party finishes a distant third.
Labour sources said there is now a division over whether Ms Jackson should be shoring up what support remains in Camden or attracting new voters on the Brent side of the new constituency.
“Whichever way she turns, she should be starting now because it’s going to be a long haul,” said one well-placed insider.
“We haven’t seen enough of her in this neck of the woods so far.”
Mike Katz, chairman of the Hampstead branch, said the criticisms were unfair and that Ms Jackson had shown her commitment, joining door knockers in Hampstead.
He said: “The Lib Dems and the Conservatives have been fighting the by-election like it was something for a parish council seat somewhere in Suffolk. There is no policy being talked about because the parties have the same message.
“Glenda gives out a clear message. She has made criticisms of the government on issues such as foreign policy but she knows that there have been landmark improvements by Labour government since she was first elected.”
But both the Tories and the Lib Dems sniff blood. Conservative rival Chris Philp said the result of the latest poll was evidence that voters in Hampstead who felt they could not support the Tories under the leadership of Michael Howard had been “switched on” by David Cameron’s reorganisation.
Mr Philp played down the significance of today’s battle in Hampstead, where the Conservatives and the Lib Dems will suspend their facade of cordial relations for coalition council business in what has effectively been thinned down to a two-horse race.
“It does not hold relevance to the parliamentary campaign,” Mr Philp said. “If people think Stephen Phillips is a good man they will vote for the Conservatives; if they think Linda Chung [Lib Dem] is a nice person, they will vote for her.
“A by-election is completely different from a general election, where people wanting to protest don’t have a luxury to vote Liberal Democrat.
“In a general election voters have a clear choice: Brown or Cameron, Labour or Conservative.”
Yet while the result will not affect how the council is run overall, victory would be the perfect filip for either side in their pursuit of Ms Jackson and their laborious attempts to present themselves as her most dangerous foe.
Ed Fordham, the Lib Dem parliamentary candidate, said: “Chris Philp makes a big thing of this latest poll but not the previous 16 that have shown the Lib Dems are the challengers here.
“The only poll I’m interested in is the ballot – and when it comes to voting, people have shown they vote for the Lib Dems.
“The Liberal Democrats won in by-elections in Queen’s Park, Fortune Green and we will see what happens in Hampstead.
“We have something like 20 out of the 30 councillors in the constituency.”
Voters go to the polls after Conservative councillor Mike Greene stepped down from the council and moved to Bournemouth – where it was revealed this week he has missed out on the chance to stand for Parliament himself in the seaside town.
...but top Lib Dem claims: "We're main threat"
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